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Pachuca vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our prediction and analysis for Pachuca vs. Toluca at the Liga MX on September 3, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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LIGA MX
FINAL
LIGA MX
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5
Sep 3, 6PM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
Sep 3, 6PM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets Score Summary
Tiago Volpi (pen.) (24')
M. Araujo (28')
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco (52')
Pedro Raul (57')
Pedro Raul (63')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
Substitution for Toluca: T. Belmonte replaces J. Meneses
Substitution for Toluca: M. Isais replaces M. Araujo
Substitution for Pachuca: C. Ortiz replaces E. Sanchez
J. Venegas (Toluca) cautioned
Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces Pedro Raul
Substitution for Toluca: C. Baeza replaces J. Angulo
Substitution for Toluca: E. I. Lopez Rodriguez replaces M. Ruiz
Substitution for Pachuca: J. Lopez replaces L. Sanchez
Goal scored for Toluca by Pedro Raul, assisted by J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
0-5
Goal scored for Toluca by Pedro Raul, assisted by J. Angulo
0-4
Goal scored for Toluca by J. P. Dominguez Chonteco, assisted by M. Araujo
0-3
Substitution for Pachuca: L. Di Yorio replaces R. de la Rosa
Substitution for Pachuca: F. Figueroa replaces David Terans
Substitution for Pachuca: B. D. Castillo Segura replaces J. Castillo
Goal scored for Toluca by M. Araujo, assisted by J. Meneses
0-2
Goal scored for Toluca by Tiago Volpi (pen.)
0-1
C. Moreno (Pachuca) cautioned
M. Rodriguez (Pachuca) cautioned
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Pachuca vs. Toluca: Detailed breakdown
Dimers' Pachuca vs. Toluca prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Liga MX matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.
Match overview
- Teams: Pachuca vs. Toluca
- Date: Sunday, September 3, 2023
- Time: 2:00 PM ET
- Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez
- Tournament: Liga MX
Current betting odds
- Moneyline: Pachuca +200, Toluca +120, draw +300
- Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-172/+130)
Dimers' win probabilities
- Pachuca: 31.1%
- Toluca: 45.3%
- Draw: 23.6%
These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.
Projected score
The most likely correct score for this matchup is Pachuca 1-1 Toluca, with a probability of 11%.
Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.
Our prediction: Who wins?
Pachuca is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 31.1% probability, while Toluca sits at 45.3%, with the draw at 23.6%.
For full access to Liga MX predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Liga MX best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.
Summary
Dimers' Pachuca vs. Toluca prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Liga MX and the latest Liga MX news.
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