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Alaves vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Alaves vs. Real Madrid at the La Liga on December 21, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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LA LIGA
Real Madrid
1
0
Dec 21, 8:30PM Estadio de Mendizorroza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
Alaves
Dec 21, 8:30PM Estadio de Mendizorroza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
AlavesALA
Score Summary
Real MadridRMA
N. Fernandez (54')
Red Card icon
Lucas (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
ALA
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
RMA
100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
N. Tenaglia (Alaves) cautioned
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by Lucas, assisted by T. Kroos
1-0
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Ceballos replaces Rodrygo
85'
Yellow Card
J. Bellingham (Real Madrid) cautioned
83'
Yellow Card
A. Guevara (Alaves) cautioned
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: N. Tenaglia replaces A. Gorosabel
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: K. Garcia replaces S. Omorodion
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Joselu replaces B. Diaz
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: A. Sola replaces A. Rebbach
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: J. Lopez replaces R. Duarte
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: I. Hagi replaces J. Guridi
55'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Tchouameni replaces L. Modric
54'
Red Card
N. Fernandez (Real Madrid) sent off with a straight red card
45'
Yellow Card
R. Duarte (Alaves) cautioned
39'
Yellow Card
C. Ancelotti (Real Madrid) cautioned

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Alaves vs. Real Madrid: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Alaves vs. Real Madrid prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all La Liga matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Real Madrid
  • Date: Thursday, December 21, 2023
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza
  • Tournament: La Liga

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves +500, Real Madrid -175, draw +320
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-117/-104)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Alaves: 18.8%
  • Real Madrid: 58.7%
  • Draw: 22.5%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid, with a probability of 11%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Alaves is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 18.8% probability, while Real Madrid sits at 58.7%, with the draw at 22.5%.

For full access to La Liga predictions, probabilities, and tools such as La Liga best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Alaves vs. Real Madrid prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the La Liga and the latest La Liga news.

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