Burnley vs. Leeds Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Burnley vs. Leeds Premier League match on October 18, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Leeds
0
2
Turf Moor
Burnley
Turf Moor
BurnleyBUR
Score Summary
LeedsLU
L. Ugochukwu (18')
Soccer ball icon
L. Tchaouna (68')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Burnley
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Leeds
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    H. Mejbri (Burnley) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    P. Struijk (Leeds) cautioned
  3. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: H. Mejbri replaces L. Ugochukwu
  4. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: A. Barnes replaces J. Anthony
  5. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: A. Tanaka replaces E. Ampadu
  6. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Laurent replaces Z. Flemming
  7. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: J. Piroe replaces A. Stach
  8. 68'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by L. Tchaouna, assisted by Florentino
    0-2
  9. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: D. James replaces B. Aaronson
  10. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: L. Nmecha replaces J. Harrison
  11. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: L. Tchaouna replaces J. Bruun Larsen
  12. 52'
    Yellow Card
    J. Anthony (Burnley) cautioned
  13. 18'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by L. Ugochukwu, assisted by K. Walker
    0-1

Burnley vs. Leeds: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Burnley vs. Leeds
  • Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
  • Time: 10:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Turf Moor

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Burnley +260, Leeds +120, draw +220
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+128/-155)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Burnley: 30.7%
  • Leeds: 41.7%
  • Draw: 27.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Burnley 1-1 Leeds (13.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Burnley vs. Leeds? Prediction & correct score

Leeds is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 41.7%.

The most likely correct score is Burnley 1-1 Leeds.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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