Newcastle vs. Arsenal Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Newcastle vs. Arsenal Premier League match on September 28, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Arsenal
2
1
Newcastle
NewcastleNEW
Score Summary
ArsenalARS
N. Woltemade (34')
Soccer ball icon
M. Merino (84')
Soccer ball icon
Gabriel (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Newcastle
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Arsenal
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: H. Barnes replaces Joelinton
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Arsenal by Gabriel, assisted by M. Odegaard
    2-1
  3. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Arsenal: M. Lewis-Skelly replaces L. Trossard
  4. 88'
    Yellow Card
    D. Burn (Newcastle) cautioned
  5. 84'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Arsenal by M. Merino, assisted by D. Rice
    1-1
  6. 83'
    Yellow Card
    Joelinton (Newcastle) cautioned
  7. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Arsenal: M. Odegaard replaces M. Zubimendi
  8. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: J. Lascelles replaces V. Livramento
  9. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Arsenal: G. Martinelli replaces B. Saka
  10. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Arsenal: M. Merino replaces R. Calafiori
  11. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: K. Trippier replaces A. Gordon
  12. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: W. Osula replaces N. Woltemade
  13. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: A. Elanga replaces J. Murphy
  14. 56'
    Yellow Card
    R. Calafiori (Arsenal) cautioned
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Arsenal: W. Saliba replaces C. Mosquera
  16. 34'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by N. Woltemade, assisted by S. Tonali
    0-1

Newcastle vs. Arsenal: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Newcastle vs. Arsenal
  • Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
  • Time: 11:30 AM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Newcastle +250, Arsenal +120, draw +225
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+120/-142)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Newcastle: 22.4%
  • Arsenal: 53.4%
  • Draw: 24.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal (11.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Newcastle vs. Arsenal? Prediction & correct score

Arsenal is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 53.4%.

The most likely correct score is Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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