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Read Article Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Why Hawks are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 18 matchup [7/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Carlton Blues will square off with the Hawthorn Hawks in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, commencing at 5:35 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Blues game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blues vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 18 game?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL game between the Hawks and Blues, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 57.7% chance of beating the Blues.
According to our model, the Blues (+9.5) have a 56.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 147.5 points has a 50.3% chance of going over,.
Hawthorn vs. Carlton odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Blues |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -189 | +150 |
| Line (Spread) | -9.5 (-115) | +9.5 (-115) |
| Total | o147.5 (-115) | u147.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Blues picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Blues +9.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Blues | +150 |
| Total | Over 147.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues +9.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blues vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football matchup between the Blues and Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Carlton Blues
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 57.7% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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