Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Hawks favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 23 matchup [8/15/2026]
Get Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Hawthorn Hawks will face the Collingwood Magpies in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 5:40 AM ET.
Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner in this Magpies vs. Hawks prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Hawks vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 23 game?
Our independent predictive model gives the Hawks a 70.9% chance of defeating the Magpies.
According to our model, the Magpies (+19.5) have a 53.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 173.5 points has a 51.1% chance of staying under,.
Collingwood vs. Hawthorn odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Magpies +225, Hawks -294
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Magpies vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Magpies +19.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Magpies @ +225 via DraftKings
- Total: Under 173.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Magpies +19.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Hawks and Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 5:40 AM ET.
- Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Hawthorn Hawks
- Date: Saturday, August 15, 2026
- Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 70.9% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
