Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Hawks favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 23 matchup [8/15/2026]

AFL action continues on Saturday at 5:40 AM ET as the Collingwood Magpies square off with the Hawthorn Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner in this Magpies vs. Hawks prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Hawks vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 23 game?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL game between the Magpies and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 71.5% chance of defeating the Magpies.

According to our model, the Magpies (+21.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 173.5-point over/under has a 51.1% chance of staying under,.

Collingwood vs. Hawthorn odds

We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Magpies +250, Hawks -345

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Magpies vs. Hawks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Magpies +21.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Magpies @ +250 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 173.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Magpies +21.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Hawks vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Hawks and Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 5:40 AM ET.

• Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Hawthorn Hawks
• Date: Saturday, August 15, 2026
• Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Hawks, with a 71.5% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.