Prediction market platform Polymarket has been running a series of live markets on when the Trump administration will release new UFO files.
The markets took shape in May 2026 and offer a real-time look at whether traders expect the administration’s UAP transparency efforts to continue.
Instead of waiting around for official announcements, you can now trade on when the next batch of files will be released. Each new document release gives the market more information and can affect the probabilities on future deadlines.
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18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
What the Market Is Asking
The market in question: “Trump declassifies new UFO files by…?” resolves “Yes” if the Trump administration releases previously unavailable files related to extraterrestrial life or unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) by the specified deadline.
The definition of the Trump administration is broad, since it includes the Executive Office of the President, as well as executive branch departments and agencies, including the Department of Defense.
Moreover, an announcement by itself does not count, since the files must actually be released within the market's stated timeframe.
For settlement, Polymarket gives priority to official US government sources, and sometimes also uses a consensus of credible news reports to determine whether the requirements have been met.
What We Know So Far
There's no single prediction involved in this case, as the market remains ongoing with new deadlines when previous deadlines pass.
- February 2026: Trump issued a directive calling for greater transparency around UAPs, kicking off the process of releasing more details.
- May 8, 2026: The Pentagon released the first batch of UAP files through the newly created PURSUE portal. The related Polymarket contract recorded more than 33 million dollars in trading volume.
- May 22, 2026: A second batch was released, including previously unavailable footage of unexplained green orbs and discs.
- June 12, 2026: A third batch containing 72 documents and video footage was released.
- July 10, 2026: The release of a fourth batch continued the regular release schedule
- August 7, 2026: 41 more files were added from the Pentagon, FBI, CIA, State Department, and Executive Office of the President as the fifth batch was released, the widest so far in terms of the number of government agencies involved.
So far, the releases have followed a regular pattern, with new material appearing every few weeks, rather than as one major announcement.
Current Probability and What to Expect
Polymarket has already opened the next market, asking whether another batch of files will be released by September 15 and by September 30. The September 15 deadline has a 73% chance of resolving as “Yes,” and the September 30 deadline is at an even higher 89% probability.
So far, the markets for September have attracted over $24,000 in trading volume. Keep in mind that probabilities can shift minute to minute.
This is one of the major advantages of
prediction market sites
for ongoing stories; you don't have to wait for the next official announcement in the news, but can simply watch the probabilities change as new statements, documents, or releases provide more insight about when the next batch is due.
Keep in mind that the markets cover a broad range of topics, from
politics predictions
to culture and sports in supported states.
Deposit $10 get a $50 Trading Bonus
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
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